What the IPCC Said That We Did Not Want to Hear: Hurricanes Are Not Getting Worse
The IPCC made a finding that is uncomfortable: there is no evidence that hurricanes and floods are increasing. That does not mean climate change is not happening. It means our narrative must be more nuanced.
In the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report (the UN climate panel), there is something that makes many climate activists uncomfortable. Literally: “There is no clear evidence for an increase in the number of hurricanes or severe floods globally.”
This is not a denial of climate change. This is a nuance in climate change.
I say this not to minimize climate change. I say this because the truth is more complicated than our stories, and bad stories lead to bad policy.
What the IPCC did say: the ocean is getting warmer. That is established. The atmosphere contains more energy. That is established. Extreme weather becomes more severe in certain regions. That is established. But: the global number of hurricanes is not going up. The global number of floods is not going up.
Why then do we tell that story? Because it sounds logical. Heat means more energy, more energy means more severe weather, more severe weather means more hurricanes. Done. End.
But the world is more complicated. Hurricanes do not form from heat alone. They form from specific wind patterns, moisture gradients, rotation. Some of those factors are strengthened by climate change. Some are weakened. Net effect: unclear.
I see this pattern constantly in policy based on climate. We assume A leads to B leads to C. And we build policy accordingly. But then scientists say: actually, it is more complicated. C does not occur as expected. Then we have two options: we adjust policy, or we say: scientists do not understand.
Many countries choose the second. They keep telling the story: climate change leads to more hurricanes, so we must prepare for that, so we strengthen sea walls, so we increase energy efficiency, so we do renewable energy.
Funnily enough, that also leads to useful policy. Strengthening sea walls is good. Energy efficiency is good. Renewable energy is good. So the policy is right, the reasoning is just not entirely correct.
But what happens somewhere else? Venezuela said: we stop drilling because climate change is over. We stop renewable energy, no more investment. Because if hurricanes are not increasing, why would we?
So the incorrect story has real consequences.
What the actual story should be: climate change is happening. The warming is real. Some impacts are clear (sea rises, certain crops do not grow, certain regions no longer freeze). Some impacts are unclear (hurricanes, floods). We should say: we know that, so we invest in flexibility, not in preparing for specific scenarios.
Instead, we say: hurricanes are getting worse, so here is this stuff. And then others say: no, hurricanes are not getting worse, so we do not need to do anything about that.
The truth is: we do not know for sure. So make sure your system is flexible. Instead of preparing for a specific future.
This is why bad climate narratives and good climate policy do not have to go in the same direction.
Sources: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Working Group I, 2021; analyses of extreme weather trends 1900-2024